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The Black Swan
The Impact of the Highly Improbable
The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty
What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper?
This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them.
'Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide ... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person' Will Self, Independent on Sunday
'He leaps like some superhero of the mind' Boyd Tonkin, Independent
'Funny, quirky and thought-provoking ... confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot' John Cornwell, Sunday Times
'Idiosyncratically brilliant' Niall Ferguson, Sunday Telegraph
'Great fun ... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling' Stephen J. Dubner, Co-Author of Freakonomics
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What Reviewers Are Saying
Great fun ... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling * Freakonomics * An idiosyncratically brilliant new book * Sunday Telegraph * A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected * Guardian * Like the conversation of a raconteur ... hugely enjoyable - compelling * Financial Times * Confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot * Sunday Times * In the tradition of The Wisdom of Crowds and The Tipping Point * Time *